Fantasy Football Question of the Day 7/25

Starting July 25 until August 26 my friends Uly Velez, Josh Bede, and I will ask each other one fantasy football related question a day and give our individual answers to it. 

Of the players who changed teams this offseason who are the currently most undervalued and overvalued?

Charles: 

Basing the values off of ADP reported by FantasyPros.com, I'd say the most undervalued player who has changed teams is Jeremy Maclin. Maclin's ADP is currently at 110 overall, which to me is absurdly low. Yeah he had a down year last season but he also played hurt the whole season and was overshadowed by the emergence of Tyreek Hill in KC. Now he's in Baltimore where he'll have Joe Flacco throwing to him instead of the limited Alex Smith, and while Mike Wallace had a good season and improved his overall game he's still mainly a deep threat. Maclin is expected to be the primary target there, especially in the intermediate and red zone passing game. Don't forget that in the 2014 and 2015 season combined he's scored 18 total TDs which is one of the highest in the league amongst WRs during that time span. I don't expect Maclin to be a WR1 but a high end WR2 is certainly possible, with WR3/Flex value being the most likely scenario.

The most overvalued player who has changed teams is Marshawn Lynch. Let me preface this by saying that I do in fact like him this year and in no means will I be avoiding him. However, his ADP of 24 overall is a bit high for me. Not only has he been out of football for a year, but in 2015 he was plagued by injuries and didn't even look the same when he was healthy. I'm going to be a bit more cautious when it comes to drafting him. Could he end up being an RB2? Of course. But there's just as much of a chance of him ending up a total bust who rides your bench by season's end. That variance makes his 24th overall ADP too high in my opinion.

Josh:

I have Lynch as my overvauled as well so I'll throw out my 2 cents. Raiders O coordinator has said they would like to hold him under 200 carries which would put him in the same shared backfield Latavius Murray was in last year. Murray did end up as the 13th best RB last year but that was helped by 12 rushing touchdowns which is a lot in today's NFL. Also consider Richard and Washington combined for 166 carries and averaged 5.8 carries. And young backs don't get less work they get more. So Lynch's ceiling is probably right around 800 yards and 12 TDs which puts him as a low end RB1 but too much risk to draft him as one. 

My most undervalued is Alshon Jeffery. He's currently being drafted as the 21st WR taken. I understand the concern with injury but with as much time he had to heal and it not being major injuries just lingering ones (if you remember he missed the last four games because of suspension) I am more willing to take a bit of a risk on him and his huge upside than some of the WRs being taken before him. For example, Keenan Allen coming off major injury and in a more stacked offense. Also, Sammy Watkins and his feet and his reliance on big play TDs. Or the two Patriot WRs who will prob be monsters some weeks and unheard of others. So to me Alshon is about 5 or 6 WR spots after where he should be. 

As for Maclin I do actually agree with you. He is being overlooked. There are 300 targets missing from that offense! Wallace wasn't only a deep threat last year he unexpectedly rounded out his game a bit, but because of sheer volume Maclin should be a flex in PPR and deeper leagues at minimum.

Uly:

I believe Brandin Cooks is overvalued. He is coming into an offense where they spread the ball around and with a healthy Gronk back into the mix. Cooks is coming off at pick 26, WR 12. A receiver like Terrelle Pryor is coming off at pick 39 WR19 which I feel is better value for the situation. Cooks had a 78 rec 1173 yards 8 TD line last year on 117 targets. He is going into a situation where the team still has their top receiver from last season who totaled 159 looks mostly with no Gronk. Cooks will absorb the 80ish targets that Hogan and Mitchell received, but unless there's a Gronk injury there's just not enough to go around to feed everyone. Pryor has the better situation coming in as the top WR on the team with no other real target threats besides Reed, and he has yet another year of experience at the WR position.

For undervalued I have Blount who is coming off at pick 81 RB31. His stat line last year did include 18 TDs (which won't be replicated) to go along with 299 carries and 1161 yards. I believe the carries and the yards are there to be had, and touchdowns I believe he will push for double digits. Ryan Mathews last year in 13 games put up 155 carries 661 yards and 8 TDs. This year's Eagles team has more of a WR presence to help keep defenses honest.  Someone going 20 picks ahead of him and at RB23 is AP.  Coming off injury and the situation he is heading to with a crowded backfield, Blount's situation is much better to have than Peterson's.