Rookie RB Outlook After Week 1
It goes without saying that there was a lot of hype about the 2017 RB draft class. I'm always invested in RBs, and when draft time comes around I pay a lot of attention to that position. This year there were definitely a lot more RBs that I liked than previous years. and many analysts were proclaiming that this could go down as the best RB class in NFL history. If Week 1 of the season is any indication then this class is on its way to live up to the hype.
It's still tough to exactly tell how the rest of the season will play out with each player. Overreacting to Week 1 performances is something that we all tend to do sometimes. But since the fantasy football season is shorter than the actual football season, owners like you and me need to get a handle of what to do with these players sooner rather than later. Which rookies should you start? Which ones should you cut bait with? Which ones should you stash on you bench and wait for them to have the opportunity to break out? The following is my rest of season outlook for the notable rookie RBs in fantasy going into Week 2.
Kareem Hunt: Of course I'm going to start out with the player that I predicted will win OROY. My favorite player out of the entire draft class, Hunt sure hand a memorable debut performance going from fumbling on his first play (he never lost a fumble in college) to racking up a record setting 246 yards from scrimmage and 3 TDs. What I love about Hunt is that while he might not have one elite skill, he's good in almost every aspect of the position and is the most well rounded RB in the class. His biggest weakness is his top end speed but he does play faster than what his recorded speed was at the combine. What's even more impressive that people might not have picked up on though is that he put up those numbers while losing 3rd down snaps to Charcandrick West. While West will continue to have a role in the offense all season, I do think Hunt will start to earn more 3rd down work as the season progresses. He's a very good receiver, as he showed on his TD reception, it's just a matter of him showing he can be trusted in pass protection. Some might argue against me, but I think Hunt is the top ranked rookie RB for the rest of the season and a legit RB1.
Leonard Fournette: If Hunt doesn't win OROY, it'll be Leonard Fournette. His yards per carry average might have been slightly under 4, but if you watched that game it was a very impressive 3.85 yards per carry. Everything that was heralded about his game was on full display. When he gets going full speed downhill it's nearly impossible for one guy to bring him down. There's so much physicality to his game. He also looked pretty good catching out of the backfield, which I felt was an underrated part of his skillset. Not only is the talent there, but the opportunity is as well, which is very vital in fantasy. With Allen Robinson now gone for the year, I expect the Jaguars to lean very heavily on Fournette every week. Sure, he'll be facing stacked boxes, but he's one of those RBs like LeVeon Bell and Zeke Elliott who is good enough to beat 8 man boxes, he just needs adequate running lanes to do so. His offensive line is a concern, but not enough for me to rule out Fournette as a low end RB1. He's going to touch the ball a lot.
Dalvin Cook: Monday Night Football on opening week going against the future HOF RB that he was drafted to replace, and all Cook does is run for 127 yards on 22 carries. I had some small concerns about Cook after his lackluster combine performance, but I still really liked his game tape from college where he displayed speed, strength, agility, and vision. I thought his hands were a bit overrated and it showed with his 2 drops, but his skillset is still so good overall. McKinnon was used here and there to spell him, but Latavius Murray barely saw work. I'm confident that Cook will continue to be the feature back in Minnesota, and with the emergence of Stefon Diggs, Adam Theilen, and Sam Bradford (HA!), that offense will surprise people this season. I have Cook as a high end RB2.
Christian McCaffrey: I really like McCaffrey and I do think he will be a very good football player. But I still don't think he'll ever be a feature back. To me he's a Reggie Bush with better vision and intangibles. But in fantasy, he definitely still has plenty of value. His debut wasn't anything too great like Hunt, Fournette, and Cook's were, but it was still a good performance by him. He only had 47 yards rushing on 13 carries, but had 5 receptions for 38 yards. The 49ers defense focused on him a lot, and it showed on the one touchdown that Jonathan Stewart scored. Coach Rivera already stated that the team doesn't want to overwork McCaffrey. Like I said, he's not a feature back. But he is a threat whenever he's on the field, and he's going to have numerous big plays this season. He'll be a consistent RB2 in full and half PPR formats, and a high end Flex in non PPR.
Joe Mixon: This is an example of a player's fantasy value not being as high as his talents because of opportunity and situation. Mixon is definitely the best RB on that team, no question. But for some reason Marvin Lewis (why does he have a job still?) refuses to give him the touches. Also consider that the Bengals O line looks bad after losing 2 starters this offseason. I want to say that Mixon will become the feature guy sooner rather than later, but I'm not confident enough to. I definitely wouldn't drop Mixon, and I wouldn't sell low on him because his upside is way too great, especially if you're in a keeper league. But I wouldn't start him until Marvin Lewis wises up. Should Mixon ever be awarded the feature back role, he has high end RB2 upside.
Alvin Kamara: The Saints' new RB to fill their "Reggie Bush / Darren Sproles" role in their offense actually ended up getting more snaps and carries than both Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson. Expectations are high for him in New Orleans after Sean Payton compared him to Marshall Faulk. I don't quite see that level of greatness in him, but if Payton really does then that means more opportunities for Kamara. I think Ingram will still have a significant role because he's a proven weapon there, but I don't see Peterson doing much week in and week out. I'd wait maybe another week or two before having confidence in Kamara as a Flex option, but unlike Mixon in Cincinnati, there's more immediate hope for Kamara because he's already gotten more touches in his committee than Mixon has in his.
D'Onta Foreman: Lamar Miller hasn't been horrible by any means so far this season, but he hasn't been spectacular. The Texans are falling short of playmakers outside of DeAndre Hopkins and their offense is being run by a rookie QB. If you're in a 14+ team league then Foreman definitely should be stashed, but I don't see much upside even if he were to get some significant playing time. And if Miller gets hurt, that offense is pretty bad to the point where I can't see Foreman having anything more than Flex value. He's a bigger back that can move really well for his size though, so his skillset is definitely intriguing.
Samaje Perine: Robert Kelley, aka "Fat Rob", just isn't that good of a RB. However, Perine seems to be in the doghouse still from fumbling in the preseason. But if Fat Rob keeps struggling along with the rest of the Redskins offense then it's only a matter of time before Perine gets an uptick in touches. I personally don't think Perine is anything more than a power runner though. He can't catch well and he doesn't have great agility or footwork. He'd be getting early down, short yardage, and goal line carries but in a PPR league I still might be more intrigued with Chris Thompson.
Marlon Mack: I'm calling it. This has to be the season Frank Gore finally fades away, and when he does, Mack will be there to take over. The Colts are a pretty bad team without Andrew Luck and who knows when he'll be back in the lineup. They need a playmaker like Marlon Mack, who is a really good athlete, to have the ball in his hands more and more. He should have had a TD in Week 1 against the Rams but he was erroneously called out at the 1 yard line and Chuck Pagano didn't have the football smarts to challenge the play. Mack does have an issue with fumbling though, and if he doesn't fix it quick then he won't have a signifcant role for very long. If Gore somehow gets hurt and Mack is the starter, I think he can be an RB2. For now though he's a bench stash.
Tarik Cohen: Jordan Howard, as good as he is on the ground, just isn't a great option in the receiving game. Insert Tarik Cohen, aka the next Darren Sproles. I know, there have been many RBs that have gotten that label prematurely before, but I do think Cohen is talented enough to be that guy. Just watch the guy run. He's electric with the ball in his hands but he also has underrated power to his game just like Sproles. With both Cameron Meredith and Kevin White both out for the season, the receiving options in Chicago are already limited, leaving the door wide open for Cohen to get a consistent amount of targets and touches each week. In PPR leagues Cohen is a borderline low end RB2 / high end Flex.
Jamaal Williams: Williams' fantasy value, outside of being a handcuff, was strictly dependent on Ty Montgomery's development as a RB going into this season. Well, if Montgomery continues to play like he did in week 1, then Williams will stay as nothing more than a handcuff all season. But, he's one of the must own handcuffs at that because of the offense he's in. If you have Montgomery, make sure you have Williams. If you don't have Montgomery, I don't think it's worth it to stash him.
Chris Carson: The rookie has been drawing a lot of buzz the past few weeks as a potential break out player in the Seahawks' backfield, but it's just way too crowded there for me to put much stock into him. If healthy, I still think both Rawls and Prosise will have significant roles, making this a real RBBC. If you're desperate for a RB, take a flyer on Carson, but don't be afraid to drop him for better options, especially once bye weeks start.
De'Angelo Henderson: Henderson was a guy that was a really good sleeper pick in this past NFL Draft as a late round option. He's a shorter back that packs a lot of power and good receiving skills. He had a great preseason for the Denver Broncos until he fumbled twice in Week 3. He's entrenched as the 3rd RB on the depth chart right now behind CJ Anderson and Jamaal Charles, but I don't believe Charles will stay healthy all season. For really deep leagues, Henderson is someone to put on your waiver wire watch list.
It's still tough to exactly tell how the rest of the season will play out with each player. Overreacting to Week 1 performances is something that we all tend to do sometimes. But since the fantasy football season is shorter than the actual football season, owners like you and me need to get a handle of what to do with these players sooner rather than later. Which rookies should you start? Which ones should you cut bait with? Which ones should you stash on you bench and wait for them to have the opportunity to break out? The following is my rest of season outlook for the notable rookie RBs in fantasy going into Week 2.
Kareem Hunt: Of course I'm going to start out with the player that I predicted will win OROY. My favorite player out of the entire draft class, Hunt sure hand a memorable debut performance going from fumbling on his first play (he never lost a fumble in college) to racking up a record setting 246 yards from scrimmage and 3 TDs. What I love about Hunt is that while he might not have one elite skill, he's good in almost every aspect of the position and is the most well rounded RB in the class. His biggest weakness is his top end speed but he does play faster than what his recorded speed was at the combine. What's even more impressive that people might not have picked up on though is that he put up those numbers while losing 3rd down snaps to Charcandrick West. While West will continue to have a role in the offense all season, I do think Hunt will start to earn more 3rd down work as the season progresses. He's a very good receiver, as he showed on his TD reception, it's just a matter of him showing he can be trusted in pass protection. Some might argue against me, but I think Hunt is the top ranked rookie RB for the rest of the season and a legit RB1.
Leonard Fournette: If Hunt doesn't win OROY, it'll be Leonard Fournette. His yards per carry average might have been slightly under 4, but if you watched that game it was a very impressive 3.85 yards per carry. Everything that was heralded about his game was on full display. When he gets going full speed downhill it's nearly impossible for one guy to bring him down. There's so much physicality to his game. He also looked pretty good catching out of the backfield, which I felt was an underrated part of his skillset. Not only is the talent there, but the opportunity is as well, which is very vital in fantasy. With Allen Robinson now gone for the year, I expect the Jaguars to lean very heavily on Fournette every week. Sure, he'll be facing stacked boxes, but he's one of those RBs like LeVeon Bell and Zeke Elliott who is good enough to beat 8 man boxes, he just needs adequate running lanes to do so. His offensive line is a concern, but not enough for me to rule out Fournette as a low end RB1. He's going to touch the ball a lot.
Dalvin Cook: Monday Night Football on opening week going against the future HOF RB that he was drafted to replace, and all Cook does is run for 127 yards on 22 carries. I had some small concerns about Cook after his lackluster combine performance, but I still really liked his game tape from college where he displayed speed, strength, agility, and vision. I thought his hands were a bit overrated and it showed with his 2 drops, but his skillset is still so good overall. McKinnon was used here and there to spell him, but Latavius Murray barely saw work. I'm confident that Cook will continue to be the feature back in Minnesota, and with the emergence of Stefon Diggs, Adam Theilen, and Sam Bradford (HA!), that offense will surprise people this season. I have Cook as a high end RB2.
Christian McCaffrey: I really like McCaffrey and I do think he will be a very good football player. But I still don't think he'll ever be a feature back. To me he's a Reggie Bush with better vision and intangibles. But in fantasy, he definitely still has plenty of value. His debut wasn't anything too great like Hunt, Fournette, and Cook's were, but it was still a good performance by him. He only had 47 yards rushing on 13 carries, but had 5 receptions for 38 yards. The 49ers defense focused on him a lot, and it showed on the one touchdown that Jonathan Stewart scored. Coach Rivera already stated that the team doesn't want to overwork McCaffrey. Like I said, he's not a feature back. But he is a threat whenever he's on the field, and he's going to have numerous big plays this season. He'll be a consistent RB2 in full and half PPR formats, and a high end Flex in non PPR.
Joe Mixon: This is an example of a player's fantasy value not being as high as his talents because of opportunity and situation. Mixon is definitely the best RB on that team, no question. But for some reason Marvin Lewis (why does he have a job still?) refuses to give him the touches. Also consider that the Bengals O line looks bad after losing 2 starters this offseason. I want to say that Mixon will become the feature guy sooner rather than later, but I'm not confident enough to. I definitely wouldn't drop Mixon, and I wouldn't sell low on him because his upside is way too great, especially if you're in a keeper league. But I wouldn't start him until Marvin Lewis wises up. Should Mixon ever be awarded the feature back role, he has high end RB2 upside.
Alvin Kamara: The Saints' new RB to fill their "Reggie Bush / Darren Sproles" role in their offense actually ended up getting more snaps and carries than both Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson. Expectations are high for him in New Orleans after Sean Payton compared him to Marshall Faulk. I don't quite see that level of greatness in him, but if Payton really does then that means more opportunities for Kamara. I think Ingram will still have a significant role because he's a proven weapon there, but I don't see Peterson doing much week in and week out. I'd wait maybe another week or two before having confidence in Kamara as a Flex option, but unlike Mixon in Cincinnati, there's more immediate hope for Kamara because he's already gotten more touches in his committee than Mixon has in his.
D'Onta Foreman: Lamar Miller hasn't been horrible by any means so far this season, but he hasn't been spectacular. The Texans are falling short of playmakers outside of DeAndre Hopkins and their offense is being run by a rookie QB. If you're in a 14+ team league then Foreman definitely should be stashed, but I don't see much upside even if he were to get some significant playing time. And if Miller gets hurt, that offense is pretty bad to the point where I can't see Foreman having anything more than Flex value. He's a bigger back that can move really well for his size though, so his skillset is definitely intriguing.
Samaje Perine: Robert Kelley, aka "Fat Rob", just isn't that good of a RB. However, Perine seems to be in the doghouse still from fumbling in the preseason. But if Fat Rob keeps struggling along with the rest of the Redskins offense then it's only a matter of time before Perine gets an uptick in touches. I personally don't think Perine is anything more than a power runner though. He can't catch well and he doesn't have great agility or footwork. He'd be getting early down, short yardage, and goal line carries but in a PPR league I still might be more intrigued with Chris Thompson.
Marlon Mack: I'm calling it. This has to be the season Frank Gore finally fades away, and when he does, Mack will be there to take over. The Colts are a pretty bad team without Andrew Luck and who knows when he'll be back in the lineup. They need a playmaker like Marlon Mack, who is a really good athlete, to have the ball in his hands more and more. He should have had a TD in Week 1 against the Rams but he was erroneously called out at the 1 yard line and Chuck Pagano didn't have the football smarts to challenge the play. Mack does have an issue with fumbling though, and if he doesn't fix it quick then he won't have a signifcant role for very long. If Gore somehow gets hurt and Mack is the starter, I think he can be an RB2. For now though he's a bench stash.
Tarik Cohen: Jordan Howard, as good as he is on the ground, just isn't a great option in the receiving game. Insert Tarik Cohen, aka the next Darren Sproles. I know, there have been many RBs that have gotten that label prematurely before, but I do think Cohen is talented enough to be that guy. Just watch the guy run. He's electric with the ball in his hands but he also has underrated power to his game just like Sproles. With both Cameron Meredith and Kevin White both out for the season, the receiving options in Chicago are already limited, leaving the door wide open for Cohen to get a consistent amount of targets and touches each week. In PPR leagues Cohen is a borderline low end RB2 / high end Flex.
Jamaal Williams: Williams' fantasy value, outside of being a handcuff, was strictly dependent on Ty Montgomery's development as a RB going into this season. Well, if Montgomery continues to play like he did in week 1, then Williams will stay as nothing more than a handcuff all season. But, he's one of the must own handcuffs at that because of the offense he's in. If you have Montgomery, make sure you have Williams. If you don't have Montgomery, I don't think it's worth it to stash him.
Chris Carson: The rookie has been drawing a lot of buzz the past few weeks as a potential break out player in the Seahawks' backfield, but it's just way too crowded there for me to put much stock into him. If healthy, I still think both Rawls and Prosise will have significant roles, making this a real RBBC. If you're desperate for a RB, take a flyer on Carson, but don't be afraid to drop him for better options, especially once bye weeks start.
De'Angelo Henderson: Henderson was a guy that was a really good sleeper pick in this past NFL Draft as a late round option. He's a shorter back that packs a lot of power and good receiving skills. He had a great preseason for the Denver Broncos until he fumbled twice in Week 3. He's entrenched as the 3rd RB on the depth chart right now behind CJ Anderson and Jamaal Charles, but I don't believe Charles will stay healthy all season. For really deep leagues, Henderson is someone to put on your waiver wire watch list.
Pumphrey ?
ReplyDeleteLol!! He's what we call fantasy irrelevant right now.
Delete